Market Report – 9th October 2026
Weekly grain market commentary from Simon Thomson at GrainCo. Written on Friday 9 October ahead of that evening's USDA report; futures prices as at 11am.
Summary
Markets are treading water inside the recent range. Continued Black Sea shipping restrictions caused by the fighting justify a risk premium, but until importers around the world step up and buy, there is a limit to how far the rally can run. Geopolitics and export flows are setting the agenda, with few weather or crop stories to talk about at the moment.
Futures snapshot – 11am, 9 October 2026
Contract | Price | Change |
Liffe Nov 26 | £208.25 | +£2.00 |
Liffe Nov 27 | £204.00 | −£0.75 |
Matif Dec 26 | €243.75 | +€1.25 |
CBOT Dec 26 | $6.82 | – |
EUR/GBP | 0.8472 | – |
What is supporting the market
Russia/Ukraine
The fighting remains intense and there is little sign of de-escalation; analysts increasingly expect it to run into 2027. Russian wheat exports for July to September were 7mmt against 11.3mmt for the same period last year, so the blockage is not total. The worry is winter: logistics normally get harder, which could make some of the alternative export routes now in use less viable.
US corn
Friday's USDA report was mainly a corn event, with the trade expecting a cut to the US yield after a less-than-ideal summer. September's report had yield at 178.5 bu/acre, and trade estimates for October ranged from 175 to 178 bu/acre. A tighter corn balance sheet would be supportive for wheat.
EU/Russia politics
Lithuania is pushing for a ban on Russian grain transiting its territory, along with sanctions on Russian agricultural oligarchs, and the Baltic states are reported to agree that they want Russian shipments out of their ports. So far, EU sanctions on Russia have not covered food. Losing access to Baltic ports would make it even harder to move grain out of Russia.
Market headwinds
The demand question
The loss of Black Sea supply has been offset by roughly 10mmt less estimated import demand from major buyers, mostly in North Africa and the Middle East after better-than-usual harvests. India could also fill part of the gap, anywhere from 2 to 5mmt, although sellers there are at around $300/t FOB, which is above the current market. Buyers at home and abroad will be hoping the EU and other origins can cover the shortfall until Southern Hemisphere harvests arrive, keeping prices under control.
New-crop risk
USDA was expected to show near-record grain ending stocks for Russia and Ukraine, a reminder that this is a problem of access, not production. If the shipping situation changes within the next 12 months and that pressure is released, the region would become a very aggressive seller and new-crop wheat could come under significant pressure.
Outlook
New day, same story for wheat. Black Sea restrictions have lifted the market £20–30/t from previous levels, but someone has to keep buying for it to go higher. The premium may already price in Russia and Ukraine exporting at around 60% of capacity, set against weaker-than-normal import demand this season.
The war looks bleak at present, but no one can say with confidence that things will be the same in 12 months' time. That leaves new crop looking vulnerable if and when all that Black Sea stock reaches the market.
Barring dramatic Black Sea developments, expect the recent range to hold.
Simon Thomson, GrainCo
This commentary is for general information only and is not advice to buy or sell. Prices are indicative and can move quickly.
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