Market Report – 23rd October 2026

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Weekly grain market commentary from Simon Thomson at GrainCo, written on Friday 23 October 2026. Futures prices as at 11am.

Summary

Futures fell sharply this week as Russia/Ukraine peace talks showed public signs of momentum. The recent theme of stagnant buying has also contributed to the sell-off.

Futures snapshot – 11am, 23 October 2026

Contract	Price	Change
Liffe Nov 26	£194.00	−£11.00
Liffe Nov 27	£197.00	−£5.00
Matif Dec 26	€234.00	−€12.50
CBOT Dec 26	$6.24	−$0.40
EUR/GBP	0.8369	–

Market headwinds

Peace prospects

Russia and Ukraine have agreed in principle to three-way talks with the US, resuming on 10 November. Zelensky has said he would support a 'freeze' along the current lines to advance negotiations on security guarantees. The US motivation to achieve peace is clear ahead of the midterms; less clear is whether Russia and Ukraine are motivated to make serious concessions.

Regardless, the 40% drop in shipping activity has coincided with a sharp drop in demand for this time of year, encouraging traders to ask whether the £15/t lift in markets since the shipping problem started in July is still merited.

Absent consumer

Hand-to-mouth buying has been in evidence. Lacklustre international activity and lagging futures are likely also signalling a lack of domestic buying over the last six weeks. US wheat sales for the season are now the lowest on record, despite restricted shipping from Russia and Ukraine. At some point the world consumer must step up activity, but markets will likely need to see real evidence of that before trading it.

Underwhelming El Niño

So far, the prospect of a 'Super El Niño' has been a non-feature for world weather. Australia and Argentina both have stable to good crop prospects at present. The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its forecast for Argentina's wheat crop to 23.8mmt, with others in the trade expecting 24–25mmt. Argentine values are currently around $220/t, still around $30/t higher than this time last year despite the large projected crop.

UK position

AHDB data published this week showed an expected UK wheat surplus, or free stock, of 859,000 tonnes, with final production for the 2026 harvest of 12.074mmt. Winter wheat plantings are believed to be high, given favourable autumn conditions and issues around access to the Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) in the South, added to worries that extreme hot, dry summers put more pressure on spring crops relative to winter crops.

Although it is a long way off, if this season's very low wheat crop has created an 859,000-tonne surplus, a more normal 13–14mmt UK wheat crop next harvest would certainly imply big stocks next year.

What is supporting the market

Ongoing shipping restrictions

Russian wheat exports in October and November are expected at around 3mmt (IKAR), a slight increase on the 2.4mmt shipped in September as Russia makes use of Baltic ports. If the EU starts to prohibit the use of Baltic ports in this way, as is being discussed, Russia's export capability could be reduced further from where it currently stands (circa 60% of normal).

Market structure

Liffe Nov 26 London wheat traded at a high of £221 and has since dropped by approximately £25–30/t. Black Sea shipping is still restricted, and although global fundamentals may lean more negatively since then, with improving Southern Hemisphere crop prospects and a general lack of demand, you would be entitled to ask whether enough has changed to justify a further breakdown below current levels.

Outlook

The sell-off continues in wheat, with peace talks the latest catalyst for selling. Given UK markets are still up around £15/t since the Black Sea became restricted, it is difficult to say with confidence that there is no further downside. Southern Hemisphere crops are looking good and will become available before too long, while the peace talks scheduled for November create the possibility of shipping in Eastern Europe returning to business as usual. Note also that Matif funds are still around 130k long in wheat despite the break. And despite the small EU corn crop this season, it seems clear the large US corn crop will more than offset it.

That said, Russia and Ukraine don't seem to share the US drive to stop the fighting in practice, as the violence continues daily. The Middle East conflict is also far from resolved, despite plenty of will.

Talks do not guarantee outcomes, and whether the trade has gone low enough for now is the unknowable question. Clearly, the Russia/Ukraine talks in mid-November will be a major focus for grains, whatever your bias.

Simon Thomson, GrainCo

This commentary is for general information only and is not advice to buy or sell. Prices are indicative and can move quickly.