Market Report – 5th November 2026
Weekly grain market commentary from Simon Thomson at GrainCo, written on Thursday 5 November 2026. Futures prices as at the close on Wednesday 4 November.
Summary
The sell-off continues, with little change to the recent outlook. Grain is still making its way out of Russia and Ukraine steadily through different channels, and the lost shipping capacity seems of little importance if there are few buyers for the grain.
Futures snapshot – close, 4 November 2026
Contract | Price | Change |
Liffe May 27 | £200.25 | −£3.00 |
Liffe Nov 27 | £192.00 | −£1.50 |
Matif Dec 26 | €224.00 | −€3.00 |
CBOT Dec 26 | $5.98 | −$0.01 |
EUR/GBP | 0.8323 | – |
Market headwinds
Peace talks
Russia/Ukraine/US peace talks planned for 10 November in Abu Dhabi have created optimism around de-escalation. Energy and shipping will be discussed as part of the wider talks. If Black Sea wheat were fully available to the market (Russian offers are currently $200/t), futures would be under pressure to work lower to reflect this.
Russian wheat exports of just under 3mmt in October show that, despite deep-sea shipping restrictions in the Black Sea, grain has still been finding routes out.
Southern Hemisphere looming
Harvest is progressing in the Southern Hemisphere, and Australian, Argentine and Brazilian wheat is beginning to become available to the market. Australia's expected 30mmt crop is above the 10-year average, and Argentina's 22–24mmt is around 3–5mmt above its 10-year average. El Niño has not had a significant impact on weather conditions to date.
Big US corn crop
USDA is expected next week to show a near-record US corn crop of around 410mmt, up 25mmt on the five-year average. Private forecasters still expect combined Brazilian and Argentine corn crops of just under 200mmt, around 25mmt above average. Even with a smaller-than-normal EU crop, the world picture looks very heavy given the extra 50mmt expected from the US and South America. Corn competes with wheat for demand, so this trend is negative for wheat.
Demand destruction
Hand-to-mouth buying by consumers is entrenched. Middle East and North African imports are a key pillar of global wheat exports, and demand from these regions is estimated to be down around 10mmt year on year. Big stocks and strong domestic harvests are the main causes. Buying will almost certainly have been hit further by the rise in prices since July, as budgets look less favourable for processors.
The big drop in demand helps explain why, despite the shipping disruption in the Black Sea, markets have not really experienced the expected tightness.
What is supporting the market
Talks breakdown scenario
Optimism over the Russia/Ukraine talks has been a feature of the recent sell-off, so if they don't produce results it is reasonable to assume this would be supportive. Fighting has been constant over the past few weeks, with few signs of a willingness to de-escalate so far. What impact the US midterm results have on US foreign policy will be the next point of discussion in this context.
Market structure
Given the £30/t and €40/t break in UK and EU old-crop futures, bouts of profit-taking and consolidation should not be unexpected. Funds have switched from net long positions and now hold a square combined Matif/CBOT position in wheat and a short position in corn.
Outlook
Negativity reigns in grain markets as consumers around the world limit buying, despite the ongoing sell-off. Geopolitics remains at the fore, with Ukraine peace talks, Middle East turbulence and the US midterms all weighing on commodity markets. In short, wheat and corn fundamentals are heavy, as reflected in recent trading. Black Sea disruption simply doesn't carry the same significance if the usual buyers won't buy.
Perhaps of note: back in January this year Liffe Nov 26 was trading at £170, whereas Liffe Nov 27 is currently £192. If the drop in global wheat demand ultimately offsets the shipping restrictions from Russia and Ukraine, and the UK is showing an old-crop exportable surplus on paper, the trade may question whether enough has changed in the wheat outlook year on year to justify that £22 premium.
USDA and the Ukraine talks, both on 10 November, certainly hold the potential for fireworks. In the meantime, trade positioning and geopolitical headwinds may dominate the run-up.
Simon Thomson, GrainCo
This commentary is for general information only and is not advice to buy or sell. Prices are indicative and can move quickly.
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